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Red207
667252.0
14869.9
697433.6
Blue151
288160.7
510327.8
857650.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171150100120140160180200220240207151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+58Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave9
3Coral scored#2
16Coral points11
19Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +59
38Coral scored#15
138Coral points55
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#9
12Processor points24
24Net points36
36Algae points60
174Total teleop115
Reef
11L4#5
14L3#6
10L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
49Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points0
207Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
148
#2
69.92.4
65.167.5
Auto12.7
Teleop49.1
End8.1
red by 9.2
60.70.3
57.457.0
Auto11.0
Teleop40.8
End9.0
Second
6672
#14
52.02.4
46.348.7
Auto13.5
Teleop34.1
End4.3
red by 1.1
8576
#20
50.80.3
46.546.2
Auto4.7
Teleop38.4
End7.7
Third
6974
#37
33.62.4
32.034.4
Auto3.6
Teleop28.9
End1.0
red by 5.7
5103
#34
27.80.3
28.728.4
Auto3.4
Teleop22.0
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
47%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned