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Red149
913735.7
543143.9
464142.6
Blue126
215825.1
808843.9
461029.4
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13410250150200149126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+13Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
23Coral scored#18
84Coral points63
2Processor algae#5
4Net algae#5
12Processor points30
16Net points20
28Algae points50
112Total teleop113
Reef
10L4#4
7L3#7
7L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
149Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5431
#26
43.91.4
41.042.4
Auto6.1
Teleop35.1
End2.7
Level
8088
#30
43.91.3
43.344.6
Auto3.8
Teleop36.5
End3.6
Second
4641
#27
42.61.4
40.642.1
Auto13.0
Teleop27.3
End2.3
red by 13.3
4610
#43
29.41.3
26.828.1
Auto4.0
Teleop23.3
End2.1
Third
9137
#31
35.71.4
32.333.7
Auto6.3
Teleop26.3
End3.1
red by 10.6
2158
#42
25.11.3
22.323.6
Auto5.5
Teleop19.6
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed