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Red177
636982.6
384762.4
808843.9
Blue164
667252.0
542743.5
271462.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202163100150250177164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+3Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave9
8Coral scored#8
40Coral points42
40Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +14
16Coral scored#18
59Coral points65
4Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
24Processor points12
28Net points20
52Algae points32
111Total teleop97
Reef
6L4#10
8L3#6
5L2#7
5L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#33
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
177Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.60.3
83.583.2
Auto22.2
Teleop51.9
End8.5
red by 19.9
62.70.1
62.562.7
Auto13.6
Teleop41.9
End7.1
Second
62.40.3
63.362.9
Auto13.2
Teleop39.4
End9.9
red by 10.4
6672
#14
52.00.1
51.852.0
Auto13.5
Teleop34.1
End4.3
Third
8088
#30
43.90.3
44.844.5
Auto3.8
Teleop36.5
End3.6
red by 0.4
5427
#23
43.50.1
43.443.5
Auto7.6
Teleop31.3
End4.6