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Red153
947830.8
711940.2
712153.8
Blue154
45747.0
749252.2
941840.0
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10715850200153154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+3
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave9
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points17
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +14
20Coral scored#22
72Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
12Processor points12
16Net points24
28Algae points36
100Total teleop114
Reef
12L4#12
4L3#6
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
153Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7121
#13
53.83.3
39.042.3
Auto16.0
Teleop36.4
End1.5
red by 1.7
7492
#15
52.20.7
48.749.5
Auto12.3
Teleop38.0
End1.9
Second
7119
#19
40.23.3
36.840.1
Auto10.1
Teleop22.0
End8.0
blue by 6.8
457
#8
47.00.7
44.345.0
Auto8.0
Teleop28.5
End10.4
Third
9478
#31
30.83.3
14.017.3
Auto6.4
Teleop21.5
End3.0
blue by 9.1
9418
#11
40.00.7
35.636.3
Auto7.1
Teleop27.6
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned