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Red130
918128.9
711940.2
749252.2
Blue85
578832.6
367935.0
648824.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114865010015020013085

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+17Teleop
+39Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave9
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +1
14Coral scored#13
50Coral points45
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
6Processor points12
12Net points12
18Algae points24
68Total teleop69
Reef
4L4#3
7L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#19
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
6Foul points0
130Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7492
#15
52.21.4
47.348.7
Auto12.3
Teleop38.0
End1.9
red by 17.2
3679
#28
35.00.1
29.529.6
Auto9.5
Teleop24.1
End1.4
Second
7119
#19
40.21.4
33.034.4
Auto10.1
Teleop22.0
End8.0
red by 7.6
5788
#36
32.60.1
26.826.9
Auto7.5
Teleop23.8
End1.3
Third
9181
#24
28.91.4
17.418.8
Auto7.3
Teleop14.1
End7.6
red by 4.2
6488
#38
24.80.1
21.521.5
Auto6.4
Teleop15.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed