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Red108
268743.8
624330.8
637741.6
Blue77
1038522.5
769123.4
463938.2
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1339105015020010877

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+11Teleop
+23Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points9
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
14Coral scored#10
49Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#6
6Processor points6
8Net points24
14Algae points30
63Total teleop66
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#5
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#19
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
8Foul points0
108Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2687
#29
43.81.5
33.832.3
Auto6.9
Teleop28.7
End8.3
red by 5.6
4639
#22
38.21.1
41.140.0
Auto6.6
Teleop28.4
End3.2
Second
6377
#27
41.61.5
48.446.9
Auto10.1
Teleop30.0
End1.4
red by 18.2
7691
#43
23.41.1
21.320.1
Auto3.7
Teleop19.0
End0.6
Third
6243
#26
30.81.5
31.630.1
Auto7.9
Teleop20.5
End2.5
red by 8.3
22.51.1
23.522.3
Auto2.9
Teleop17.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
62%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed