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Red216
1001453.1
300592.0
284852.7
Blue132
147761.3
711940.2
463938.2
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions194154100250300216132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+78Teleop
+78Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
6Coral scored#5
30Coral points27
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +75
29Coral scored#19
103Coral points70
4Processor algae#1
9Net algae#3
24Processor points6
36Net points12
60Algae points18
163Total teleop88
Reef
13L4#7
14L3#7
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
48Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
6Foul points0
216Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
92.01.1
84.986.0
Auto20.3
Teleop61.9
End9.7
red by 30.7
1477
#12
61.31.6
62.260.7
Auto12.1
Teleop41.7
End7.4
Second
53.11.1
46.447.5
Auto8.8
Teleop40.7
End3.6
red by 13.0
7119
#19
40.21.6
40.939.3
Auto10.1
Teleop22.0
End8.0
Third
2848
#16
52.71.1
47.848.9
Auto15.0
Teleop34.9
End2.8
red by 14.6
4639
#22
38.21.6
40.538.9
Auto6.6
Teleop28.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
81%Coral oddsEarned35%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsEarned