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Red120
941840.0
1038522.5
147761.3
Blue96
348121.0
589253.9
648824.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1491125010020012096

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
3Leave9
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points24
16Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +19
16Coral scored#11
56Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
78Total teleop59
Reef
7L4#7
7L3#4
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
12Foul points0
120Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1477
#12
61.31.2
62.160.9
Auto12.1
Teleop41.7
End7.4
red by 7.4
5892
#17
53.90.3
54.053.7
Auto15.4
Teleop34.5
End4.0
Second
9418
#11
40.01.2
40.439.2
Auto7.1
Teleop27.6
End5.2
red by 15.2
6488
#38
24.80.3
25.124.8
Auto6.4
Teleop15.9
End2.4
Third
22.51.2
23.722.5
Auto2.9
Teleop17.3
End2.4
red by 1.5
3481
#45
21.00.3
21.321.0
Auto5.5
Teleop14.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed