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Red159
147761.3
463938.2
1001453.1
Blue193
32453.1
712153.8
284852.7
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16416750100150200250159193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+26
Endgame+28
Fouls+34
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave0
5Coral scored#7
27Coral points33
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +23
20Coral scored#27
71Coral points96
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#8
18Processor points12
28Net points32
46Algae points44
117Total teleop140
Reef
8L4#11
8L3#11
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#7
35Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +34
0Foul points6
159Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1477
#12
61.30.2
61.161.3
Auto12.1
Teleop41.7
End7.4
red by 7.4
7121
#13
53.80.7
52.252.9
Auto16.0
Teleop36.4
End1.5
Second
53.10.2
53.053.1
Auto8.8
Teleop40.7
End3.6
red by 0.1
324
#7
53.10.7
51.452.2
Auto7.1
Teleop39.4
End6.6
Third
4639
#22
38.20.2
38.038.2
Auto6.6
Teleop28.4
End3.2
blue by 14.6
2848
#16
52.70.7
51.151.8
Auto15.0
Teleop34.9
End2.8