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Red209
331062.0
914060.6
268743.8
Blue168
258352.2
589253.9
45747.0
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177176140160200220209168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+27Teleop
+39Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave3
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points34
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +41
30Coral scored#24
108Coral points85
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
18Processor points12
28Net points16
46Algae points28
154Total teleop113
Reef
13L4#12
9L3#11
6L2#4
7L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#37
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +41
6Foul points4
209Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.00.7
57.958.6
Auto13.8
Teleop38.6
End9.6
red by 8.1
5892
#17
53.90.2
54.153.9
Auto15.4
Teleop34.5
End4.0
Second
60.60.7
56.557.2
Auto8.8
Teleop46.1
End5.8
red by 8.4
2583
#23
52.20.2
52.552.2
Auto12.4
Teleop38.7
End1.2
Third
2687
#29
43.80.7
39.640.3
Auto6.9
Teleop28.7
End8.3
blue by 3.2
457
#8
47.00.2
47.247.0
Auto8.0
Teleop28.5
End10.4