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Red57
950623.7
543128.8
957714.7
Blue116
999124.6
541441.2
41843.8
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8510320406012014016057116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+23
Teleop+47
Endgame+57
Fouls+59
AutonomousBlue +23
6Leave0
1Coral scored#6
3Coral points32
9Total auto32
TeleoperatedBlue +24
7Coral scored#13
26Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
12Processor points6
4Net points12
16Algae points18
42Total teleop66
Reef
4L4#5
2L3#4
1L2#5
1L1 · trough#5
11Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +59
0Foul points2
57Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5431
#19
28.81.3
31.430.1
Auto4.5
Teleop22.7
End1.6
blue by 15.0
418
#3
43.81.0
49.050.0
Auto13.9
Teleop26.7
End3.2
Second
9506
#11
23.71.3
29.227.8
Auto4.5
Teleop15.2
End4.0
blue by 17.5
41.21.0
34.435.4
Auto12.1
Teleop25.8
End3.3
Third
9577
#15
14.71.3
16.114.7
Auto3.6
Teleop9.2
End1.9
blue by 9.9
24.61.7
15.216.9
Auto5.6
Teleop14.2
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsMissed85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsEarned