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Red150
851517.1
680079.6
542735.8
Blue83
1001444.3
458712.0
590821.3
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1748705010015020015083

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+57Teleop
+69Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave6
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
20Coral scored#16
71Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
12Processor points6
12Net points4
24Algae points10
95Total teleop66
Reef
7L4#6
8L3#5
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#19
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
2Foul points4
150Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.60.1
81.381.4
Auto20.4
Teleop48.9
End10.3
red by 35.3
44.31.0
47.646.6
Auto9.9
Teleop27.3
End7.0
Second
5427
#15
35.80.1
42.943.0
Auto7.3
Teleop23.0
End5.5
red by 14.5
5908
#35
21.31.0
24.523.5
Auto3.3
Teleop17.3
End0.7
Third
8515
#34
17.10.1
16.816.9
Auto4.2
Teleop9.5
End3.3
red by 5.0
4587
#39
12.01.0
16.515.5
Auto2.8
Teleop8.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
69%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed