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Red161
419224.8
118104.8
463928.3
Blue75
258236.1
147752.7
941831.3
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17613305010015020025030016175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+86Teleop
+86Endgame
+86Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points27
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +79
24Coral scored#6
88Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
6Processor points6
16Net points4
22Algae points10
110Total teleop31
Reef
11L4#4
11L3#4
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
35Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +86
0Foul points0
161Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#1
104.80.2
103.3103.4
Auto21.6
Teleop72.6
End10.7
red by 52.1
1477
#11
52.73.9
58.454.5
Auto10.0
Teleop37.1
End5.7
Second
4639
#25
28.30.2
27.827.9
Auto6.9
Teleop18.5
End2.9
blue by 7.8
2582
#20
36.13.9
38.834.9
Auto7.4
Teleop23.4
End5.3
Third
4192
#42
24.80.2
27.727.8
Auto6.8
Teleop17.8
End0.2
blue by 6.5
9418
#19
31.33.9
36.132.2
Auto4.7
Teleop22.6
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
92%Coral oddsEarned43%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned