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Red166
32454.9
284845.8
32351.9
Blue218
914060.8
1011841.2
589256.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166167160170180190200210166218

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+34
Endgame+52
Fouls+52
AutonomousBlue +13
9Leave6
4Coral scored#7
21Coral points37
30Total auto43
TeleoperatedBlue +21
17Coral scored#33
60Coral points117
4Processor algae#2
10Net algae#4
24Processor points12
40Net points16
64Algae points28
124Total teleop145
Reef
10L4#18
4L3#10
3L2#5
4L1 · trough#7
35Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +52
6Foul points6
166Total score218

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
324
#9
54.90.2
54.754.9
Auto8.4
Teleop38.0
End8.5
blue by 5.9
9140
#31
60.81.3
58.960.3
Auto14.4
Teleop41.7
End4.7
Second
323
#13
51.90.2
51.751.9
Auto6.6
Teleop39.0
End6.3
blue by 4.4
56.31.3
54.455.8
Auto13.3
Teleop37.7
End5.3
Third
2848
#24
45.80.2
45.645.8
Auto14.6
Teleop30.3
End0.9
red by 4.6
41.21.3
39.340.6
Auto7.5
Teleop25.3
End8.3