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Red249
804490.4
258236.1
118104.8
Blue141
147752.7
384750.3
541437.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions247135050100200300350249141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+32Auto
+82Teleop
+102Endgame
+108Fouls
AutonomousRed +32
0Leave9
10Coral scored#2
51Coral points10
51Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +50
34Coral scored#18
122Coral points66
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#8
24Processor points18
20Net points32
44Algae points50
166Total teleop116
Reef
17L4#6
14L3#5
8L2#4
5L1 · trough#5
53Game pieces#31
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +108
6Foul points0
249Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#1
104.80.3
103.1103.5
Auto21.6
Teleop72.6
End10.7
red by 52.1
1477
#11
52.70.0
53.353.2
Auto10.0
Teleop37.1
End5.7
Second
90.40.3
88.789.0
Auto19.1
Teleop59.6
End11.7
red by 40.1
3847
#14
50.30.0
50.950.8
Auto12.1
Teleop29.2
End9.0
Third
2582
#20
36.10.3
35.635.9
Auto7.4
Teleop23.4
End5.3
blue by 1.8
5414
#27
37.90.0
38.438.3
Auto9.3
Teleop27.5
End1.0