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Red173
41848.6
582941.4
300567.2
Blue210
914060.8
1011841.2
589256.3
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166166120140160180200220173210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+27
Endgame+37
Fouls+37
AutonomousBlue +24
9Leave3
3Coral scored#9
14Coral points44
23Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +3
24Coral scored#28
88Coral points99
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
124Total teleop127
Reef
9L4#16
7L3#8
6L2#9
5L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +37
0Foul points0
173Total score210

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#38
67.20.4
65.866.3
Auto10.5
Teleop49.9
End6.8
red by 6.4
9140
#31
60.81.5
55.957.3
Auto14.4
Teleop41.7
End4.7
Second
418
#21
48.60.4
47.247.7
Auto12.8
Teleop29.8
End6.0
blue by 7.7
56.31.5
51.452.8
Auto13.3
Teleop37.7
End5.3
Third
41.40.4
40.040.5
Auto8.3
Teleop26.1
End7.0
red by 0.2
41.21.5
36.237.7
Auto7.5
Teleop25.3
End8.3