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Red159
941831.3
635759.5
680079.6
Blue134
542735.8
62458.5
271843.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19314950100250300159134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
5Coral scored#8
24Coral points38
30Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +31
18Coral scored#17
65Coral points62
2Processor algae#2
9Net algae#2
12Processor points12
36Net points8
48Algae points20
113Total teleop82
Reef
10L4#11
7L3#7
2L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#29
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points2
159Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.60.4
81.581.0
Auto20.4
Teleop48.9
End10.3
red by 21.0
624
#17
58.50.3
59.459.1
Auto11.7
Teleop42.3
End4.6
Second
6357
#12
59.50.4
61.460.9
Auto8.4
Teleop45.0
End6.1
red by 15.6
2718
#10
43.80.3
44.744.4
Auto12.4
Teleop26.7
End4.7
Third
9418
#19
31.30.4
33.232.7
Auto4.7
Teleop22.6
End4.0
blue by 4.5
5427
#15
35.80.3
36.736.4
Auto7.3
Teleop23.0
End5.5