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Red77
95219.0
851516.8
384756.0
Blue84
951720.1
541434.9
913726.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions985801507784

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
+1Endgame
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +2
9Coral scored#10
32Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
52Total teleop54
Reef
3L4#5
3L3#2
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#15
BargeRed +6
16Cage & park10
16Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points8
77Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.00.4
53.252.8
Auto13.2
Teleop33.3
End9.5
red by 21.1
34.91.3
23.925.3
Auto7.1
Teleop24.7
End3.1
Second
8515
#17
16.80.4
18.518.1
Auto2.8
Teleop9.5
End4.4
blue by 10.0
26.71.3
16.617.9
Auto4.4
Teleop20.1
End2.3
Third
9521
#29
9.00.7
11.510.8
Auto0.3
Teleop5.7
End3.0
blue by 11.1
9517
#10
20.11.3
15.316.7
Auto3.1
Teleop13.5
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed