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Red40
851516.8
589415.9
125514.8
Blue39
458717.1
814413.1
951513.8
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions444510203040506070804039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+11Teleop
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +5
4Coral scored#3
14Coral points11
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
22Total teleop17
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
40Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8515
#17
16.80.1
18.118.0
Auto2.8
Teleop9.5
End4.4
blue by 0.4
4587
#22
17.10.1
14.714.6
Auto2.8
Teleop10.6
End3.7
Second
5894
#15
15.90.1
8.78.6
Auto4.1
Teleop10.9
End0.9
red by 2.1
9515
#20
13.80.1
12.512.4
Auto3.4
Teleop5.6
End4.7
Third
1255
#21
14.80.1
14.814.7
Auto3.6
Teleop9.3
End1.9
red by 1.7
8144
#19
13.10.1
13.113.0
Auto3.7
Teleop7.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
18%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsEarned