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Red64
839210.9
288211.6
851516.8
Blue51
258527.5
348115.3
95165.4
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions496302040801001206451

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+17
Endgame+7
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave9
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points11
12Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +9
4Coral scored#5
14Coral points17
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
18Total teleop27
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
20Foul points0
64Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8515
#17
16.80.3
17.116.8
Auto2.8
Teleop9.5
End4.4
blue by 10.8
27.50.7
29.328.6
Auto3.8
Teleop17.3
End6.3
Second
2882
#12
11.60.3
12.211.9
Auto3.4
Teleop4.6
End3.5
blue by 3.7
3481
#13
15.30.6
15.514.9
Auto5.9
Teleop7.3
End2.2
Third
8392
#18
10.90.3
11.911.6
Auto4.4
Teleop5.5
End1.0
red by 5.5
9516
#27
5.40.8
5.95.2
Auto2.5
Teleop1.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsMissed