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Red98
458717.1
913726.7
541434.9
Blue95
882721.4
965821.1
1011830.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions889170801001109895

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+23Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +19
15Coral scored#13
54Coral points45
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
78Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#4
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
98Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.91.4
32.734.1
Auto7.1
Teleop24.7
End3.1
red by 4.0
30.91.1
28.829.9
Auto5.5
Teleop16.3
End9.1
Second
26.71.4
23.124.5
Auto4.4
Teleop20.1
End2.3
red by 5.3
8827
#26
21.41.1
20.821.9
Auto2.9
Teleop14.0
End4.5
Third
4587
#22
17.11.4
13.514.9
Auto2.8
Teleop10.6
End3.7
blue by 4.0
21.11.1
19.620.7
Auto4.2
Teleop14.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed74%Barge oddsEarned