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Red107
817723.4
384756.0
882721.4
Blue18
839210.9
348115.3
458717.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1053405015010718

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+63Teleop
+83Endgame
+89Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points3
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +46
11Coral scored#2
40Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
54Total teleop8
Reef
5L4#1
3L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
17Game pieces#3
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +89
6Foul points0
107Total score18

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.00.6
50.651.2
Auto13.2
Teleop33.3
End9.5
red by 38.8
4587
#22
17.11.7
13.912.3
Auto2.8
Teleop10.6
End3.7
Second
8177
#23
23.40.6
17.518.1
Auto3.6
Teleop12.6
End7.3
red by 8.1
3481
#13
15.31.7
11.49.8
Auto5.9
Teleop7.3
End2.2
Third
8827
#26
21.40.6
18.619.1
Auto2.9
Teleop14.0
End4.5
red by 10.5
8392
#18
10.91.7
12.210.6
Auto4.4
Teleop5.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed