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Red36
568212.6
464118.2
617114.6
Blue17
415318.9
33557.6
75354.1
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions524701001502002503003617

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+15Teleop
+17Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +12
3Coral scored#2
12Coral points6
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
22Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
2Foul points0
36Total score17

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4641
#14
18.21.4
24.322.9
Auto6.5
Teleop11.1
End0.7
blue by 0.7
18.93.0
23.620.7
Auto4.8
Teleop10.2
End3.8
Second
6171
#16
14.61.4
11.810.4
Auto4.5
Teleop9.6
End0.5
red by 7.0
3355
#27
7.63.0
11.78.7
Auto2.8
Teleop3.0
End1.8
Third
5682
#15
12.60.8
10.59.7
Auto3.0
Teleop7.1
End2.6
red by 8.5
7535
#31DQ
4.13.0
8.35.3
Auto1.5
Teleop1.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsMissed