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Red81
284833.0
568212.6
949232.9
Blue66
415318.9
1034023.2
543120.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8768204060801001201408166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+3Teleop
+5Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
9Coral scored#9
31Coral points31
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
49Total teleop53
Reef
5L4#4
3L3#3
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +15
12Foul points2
81Total score66

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.00.2
32.632.5
Auto8.8
Teleop21.7
End2.5
red by 9.8
23.20.0
23.423.5
Auto4.2
Teleop17.3
End1.7
Second
32.90.2
32.532.3
Auto5.1
Teleop25.6
End2.1
red by 12.7
5431
#17
20.20.0
20.420.4
Auto3.0
Teleop14.9
End2.2
Third
5682
#15
12.60.2
12.212.0
Auto3.0
Teleop7.1
End2.6
blue by 6.3
18.90.0
19.119.2
Auto4.8
Teleop10.2
End3.8