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Red100
851521.9
284844.1
463923.0
Blue114
258234.9
769126.2
857631.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8686809095100105100114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+18
Endgame+10
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave3
0Coral scored#4
0Coral points20
6Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +1
14Coral scored#18
52Coral points63
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
80Total teleop81
Reef
6L4#7
3L3#6
2L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#26
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points4
100Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2848
#35
44.10.8
41.342.2
Auto13.2
Teleop30.5
End0.5
red by 9.2
2582
#10
34.91.5
33.034.4
Auto8.7
Teleop20.4
End5.9
Second
4639
#27
23.00.8
24.825.7
Auto5.4
Teleop14.9
End2.6
blue by 8.6
8576
#25
31.61.5
34.836.2
Auto2.9
Teleop22.4
End6.3
Third
8515
#24
21.90.8
18.319.2
Auto4.4
Teleop14.3
End3.2
blue by 4.3
26.21.5
17.819.3
Auto3.3
Teleop22.3
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsMissed