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Red104
23149.2
258726.5
742130.8
Blue83
913725.9
664736.5
582931.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115116608010014016010483

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+17Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +14
16Coral scored#15
56Coral points54
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
18Processor points6
8Net points8
26Algae points14
82Total teleop68
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#5
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#19
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
104Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
231
#3
49.20.9
48.347.4
Auto6.8
Teleop33.6
End8.8
red by 12.7
6647
#15
36.52.2
43.341.1
Auto6.8
Teleop26.9
End2.8
Second
7421
#31
30.80.9
31.730.8
Auto8.0
Teleop20.3
End2.5
blue by 0.4
5829
#13
31.12.2
30.728.6
Auto6.8
Teleop16.8
End7.5
Third
2587
#18
26.50.9
22.621.7
Auto6.4
Teleop18.0
End2.1
red by 0.7
9137
#26
25.92.2
28.726.5
Auto3.9
Teleop20.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed