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Red157
999130.9
817739.1
463562.9
Blue156
742130.8
384741.0
582931.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14595050200157156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
+37Teleop
+25Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousBlue +12
3Leave3
4Coral scored#7
22Coral points34
25Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +49
22Coral scored#13
80Coral points45
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
18Processor points12
20Net points12
38Algae points24
118Total teleop69
Reef
9L4#7
6L3#6
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points24
157Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4635
#14
62.91.7
62.464.2
Auto12.1
Teleop41.5
End9.3
red by 21.9
3847
#19
41.02.6
34.036.5
Auto10.5
Teleop23.4
End7.1
Second
8177
#12
39.11.7
38.440.2
Auto9.2
Teleop23.7
End6.2
red by 8.0
5829
#13
31.12.6
28.631.1
Auto6.8
Teleop16.8
End7.5
Third
9991
#11
30.92.9
30.133.0
Auto6.0
Teleop22.2
End2.5
red by 0.2
7421
#31
30.82.6
30.833.4
Auto8.0
Teleop20.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsEarned