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Red152
635753.3
589241.9
749244.2
Blue163
384741.0
288151.7
999430.3
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14812050100200250152163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+11
Endgame+11
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave9
2Coral scored#3
11Coral points14
20Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +8
18Coral scored#21
66Coral points74
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#8
18Processor points18
32Net points32
50Algae points50
116Total teleop124
Reef
6L4#10
7L3#8
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#35
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points0
152Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.30.3
53.053.3
Auto10.6
Teleop33.9
End8.7
red by 1.5
51.71.1
48.349.5
Auto12.1
Teleop34.2
End5.5
Second
44.20.3
43.944.2
Auto9.8
Teleop32.9
End1.6
red by 3.2
3847
#19
41.01.1
37.638.7
Auto10.5
Teleop23.4
End7.1
Third
5892
#22
41.90.3
41.641.9
Auto12.3
Teleop26.8
End2.9
red by 11.6
9994
#21
30.31.5
25.827.3
Auto10.6
Teleop18.7
End0.8