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Red52
373530.8
965814.1
Blue13
59866.5
94447.8
58949.0
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54280204060801005213

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+35Teleop
+37Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
5Coral scored#0
18Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
28Total teleop0
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
4Foul points2
52Total score13

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.80.2
22.422.6
Auto3.6
Teleop25.9
End1.4
red by 21.8
5894
#42
9.01.9
15.213.3
Auto2.9
Teleop4.4
End1.8
Second
9658
#24
14.10.3
11.812.1
Auto3.4
Teleop9.9
End0.7
red by 6.3
9444
#27
7.81.1
7.26.1
Auto3.1
Teleop5.4
End-0.7
Third
8.70.2
10.710.9
Auto2.3
Teleop5.0
End1.4
red by 2.2
5986
#16
6.51.1
5.54.4
Auto3.0
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsEarned13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed