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Red34
526112.7
947817.5
578814.3
Blue49
59234.8
85919.5
463927.6
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565902040801003449

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+17
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +23
4Coral scored#8
13Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
6Processor points6
0Net points8
6Algae points14
19Total teleop42
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#3
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
34Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9478
#21
17.52.1
19.016.9
Auto3.9
Teleop11.9
End1.7
blue by 10.1
4639
#16
27.60.4
22.922.5
Auto5.9
Teleop20.4
End1.3
Second
5788
#22
14.32.1
15.813.6
Auto2.8
Teleop10.7
End0.8
red by 4.7
8591
#17
9.50.4
13.012.6
Auto2.7
Teleop5.2
End1.6
Third
5261
#32
12.72.1
16.013.8
Auto3.4
Teleop6.5
End2.8
red by 7.9
5923
#24
4.80.4
13.713.3
Auto0.6
Teleop4.0
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed