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Red40
28827.7
680052.7
930711.5
Blue18
88797.6
92897.4
541714.8
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions734602060801001204018

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+10Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave0
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +4
3Coral scored#2
11Coral points7
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
15Total teleop11
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#4
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
40Total score18

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.72.5
37.835.4
Auto15.4
Teleop31.7
End5.7
red by 37.9
5417
#27
14.82.7
17.414.7
Auto3.7
Teleop10.6
End0.5
Second
9307
#20
11.52.5
11.69.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End2.6
red by 4.0
8879
#34
7.62.7
11.99.2
Auto1.4
Teleop5.4
End0.7
Third
2882
#26
7.72.5
9.97.4
Auto2.0
Teleop1.8
End3.8
red by 0.3
9289
#28
7.42.7
10.47.7
Auto2.4
Teleop4.7
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed