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Red43
42953.1
814412.2
648819.6
Blue14
85919.5
458714.0
37284.0
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions523902060801004314

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
+27Teleop
+29Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +12
9Leave0
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +15
5Coral scored#3
17Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
27Total teleop12
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points0
43Total score14

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.60.8
18.117.3
Auto5.0
Teleop13.9
End0.7
red by 5.6
4587
#18
14.03.0
16.213.2
Auto2.1
Teleop8.7
End3.1
Second
8144
#13
12.20.8
15.514.7
Auto2.8
Teleop8.7
End0.7
red by 2.7
8591
#17
9.53.0
11.48.4
Auto2.7
Teleop5.2
End1.6
Third
4295
#31
3.10.8
7.66.8
Auto1.4
Teleop1.4
End0.2
blue by 0.8
3728
#33
4.03.0
5.72.6
Auto2.1
Teleop1.5
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed