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Red26
421914.7
526112.7
37284.0
Blue54
837015.0
28827.7
23127.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions274301020506070802654

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
Teleop+16
Endgame+28
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +12
0Leave0
1Coral scored#4
6Coral points18
6Total auto18
TeleoperatedBlue +4
3Coral scored#4
12Coral points16
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
16Total teleop20
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points0
26Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4219
#25
14.70.0
14.714.8
Auto2.9
Teleop9.6
End2.1
blue by 12.7
231
#11
27.41.9
21.323.3
Auto6.4
Teleop17.4
End3.6
Second
5261
#32
12.70.0
9.09.0
Auto3.4
Teleop6.5
End2.8
blue by 2.3
8370
#10
15.01.9
10.312.2
Auto4.5
Teleop8.3
End2.2
Third
3728
#33
4.00.0
2.12.1
Auto2.1
Teleop1.5
End0.4
blue by 3.7
2882
#26
7.71.9
4.96.9
Auto2.0
Teleop1.8
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsEarned