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Red65
839211.3
62431.4
857617.7
Blue17
947817.5
541714.8
43288.1
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69460204060801001206517

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+28Teleop
+40Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +19
4Coral scored#3
15Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
29Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
8Foul points0
65Total score17

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
624
#8
31.40.1
28.128.1
Auto7.6
Teleop19.3
End4.5
red by 13.9
9478
#21
17.52.3
12.510.2
Auto3.9
Teleop11.9
End1.7
Second
17.70.1
17.617.7
Auto4.1
Teleop10.0
End3.7
red by 2.9
5417
#27
14.82.3
14.712.4
Auto3.7
Teleop10.6
End0.5
Third
8392
#14
11.30.1
10.710.7
Auto3.5
Teleop7.3
End0.5
red by 3.3
4328
#29
8.12.3
11.79.4
Auto0.8
Teleop5.3
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned11%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed