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Red101
951218.1
1011826.4
526112.7
Blue55
930711.5
42953.1
918116.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6640020608010012010155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+48Teleop
+50Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +42
14Coral scored#6
51Coral points23
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
12Processor points6
8Net points0
20Algae points6
71Total teleop29
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#2
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
2Foul points6
101Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.42.8
22.525.4
Auto4.5
Teleop14.3
End7.6
red by 10.1
9181
#23
16.30.3
17.017.3
Auto2.7
Teleop5.9
End7.7
Second
9512
#12
18.12.8
15.718.5
Auto2.9
Teleop14.1
End1.1
red by 6.6
9307
#20
11.50.3
9.810.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End2.6
Third
5261
#32
12.72.8
10.413.3
Auto3.4
Teleop6.5
End2.8
red by 9.6
4295
#31
3.10.3
3.64.0
Auto1.4
Teleop1.4
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsEarned