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Red65
147753.1
761617.5
928912.9
Blue37
912848.5
947810.4
857310.3
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87854060801001206537

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+20Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
5Coral scored#4
19Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
23Total teleop18
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
14Foul points6
65Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.11.9
49.547.6
Auto10.5
Teleop32.7
End9.9
red by 4.6
48.53.2
47.444.2
Auto12.9
Teleop29.2
End6.5
Second
7616
#22
17.53.2
23.720.5
Auto3.4
Teleop10.7
End3.3
red by 7.1
9478
#24
10.43.2
16.413.2
Auto4.1
Teleop5.2
End1.1
Third
12.91.9
3.71.8
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End1.4
red by 2.6
8573
#19
10.33.2
12.39.1
Auto2.8
Teleop6.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsEarned