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Red69
463935.2
928912.9
801923.7
Blue117
582929.2
912848.5
912111.3
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6392020408010012014016069117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+38
Endgame+42
Fouls+48
AutonomousBlue +24
0Leave6
1Coral scored#5
6Coral points24
6Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +14
8Coral scored#15
27Coral points55
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
55Total teleop69
Reef
4L4#8
3L3#5
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#4
15Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +48
6Foul points12
69Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.20.4
28.428.8
Auto5.7
Teleop28.2
End1.3
blue by 13.3
48.52.0
43.345.4
Auto12.9
Teleop29.2
End6.5
Second
8019
#16
23.70.4
19.820.1
Auto4.3
Teleop17.3
End2.1
blue by 5.5
5829
#12
29.22.0
22.424.4
Auto5.5
Teleop21.8
End1.9
Third
12.90.4
6.36.7
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End1.4
red by 1.6
9121
#21
11.32.0
8.910.9
Auto4.1
Teleop6.2
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsMissed51%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsEarned