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Red119
928912.9
912848.5
905113.1
Blue28
761617.5
85917.6
1038514.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9054010015011928

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+33Teleop
+43Endgame
+91Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
8Coral scored#3
28Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
38Total teleop9
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +91
54Foul points6
119Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.50.6
48.748.2
Auto12.9
Teleop29.2
End6.5
red by 31.1
7616
#22
17.53.3
25.221.9
Auto3.4
Teleop10.7
End3.3
Second
9051
#10
13.10.9
16.015.1
Auto2.6
Teleop8.6
End1.9
blue by 1.5
14.63.3
14.911.6
Auto1.7
Teleop11.4
End1.5
Third
12.90.6
5.65.1
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End1.4
red by 5.2
8591
#15
7.62.0
9.27.2
Auto2.9
Teleop3.8
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed