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Red81
637739.0
71258.3
258240.5
Blue59
874930.0
851517.7
873216.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92750501502008159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+16Teleop
+16Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +9
8Coral scored#6
28Coral points21
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
48Total teleop39
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
6Foul points0
81Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.50.5
32.331.8
Auto5.4
Teleop28.2
End6.9
red by 10.5
30.01.0
25.324.3
Auto3.4
Teleop19.9
End6.7
Second
39.00.5
31.531.0
Auto6.2
Teleop30.6
End2.2
red by 21.3
8515
#17
17.71.0
21.920.9
Auto5.0
Teleop10.6
End2.1
Third
7125
#36
8.30.5
15.615.1
Auto4.3
Teleop3.2
End0.7
blue by 8.5
8732
#38
16.71.0
20.919.9
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned