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Red135
44941.0
219946.2
42265.1
Blue105
583022.5
62058.5
188529.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1961230100300400135105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+16Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave0
9Coral scored#3
44Coral points16
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +12
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
6Processor points12
12Net points28
18Algae points40
77Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#4
8L3#5
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#26
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
135Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#10Sur
65.11.9
65.964.0
Auto18.4
Teleop39.1
End7.6
red by 6.6
620
#8Sur
58.50.8
56.555.7
Auto15.3
Teleop41.9
End1.3
Second
2199
#13Sur
46.21.9
46.644.7
Auto9.8
Teleop28.2
End8.1
red by 16.7
1885
#18
29.50.8
30.029.2
Auto2.0
Teleop26.4
End1.1
Third
449
#23
41.01.9
43.441.4
Auto7.0
Teleop27.9
End6.1
red by 18.5
5830
#26Sur
22.50.8
21.220.4
Auto3.0
Teleop18.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed