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Red145
219946.2
61432.4
126233.6
Blue163
11647.2
218617.3
62058.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12112080100140160145163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
Teleop+8
Endgame+10
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +5
0Leave0
4Coral scored#5
21Coral points26
21Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +3
23Coral scored#16
84Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#11
12Processor points12
16Net points44
28Algae points56
112Total teleop115
Reef
6L4#9
9L3#4
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points8
145Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2199
#13
46.20.4
45.846.2
Auto9.8
Teleop28.2
End8.1
blue by 12.3
620
#8
58.50.6
55.656.2
Auto15.3
Teleop41.9
End1.3
Second
1262
#16
33.60.4
33.133.6
Auto4.0
Teleop28.3
End1.2
blue by 13.7
116
#5
47.20.6
44.244.9
Auto5.5
Teleop34.1
End7.7
Third
614
#15
32.40.4
32.032.4
Auto7.4
Teleop24.0
End1.0
red by 15.1
2186
#19
17.30.6
14.415.0
Auto5.9
Teleop2.9
End8.5