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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions615001001502006228

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+30Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave0
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points6
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +20
4Coral scored#3
16Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
30Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
12Foul points6
62Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9033
#12
30.50.2
22.121.9
Auto5.6
Teleop20.3
End4.6
red by 8.0
2421
#31
22.51.8
24.923.1
Auto4.6
Teleop13.0
End4.9
Second
611
#9
27.50.2
16.716.5
Auto6.1
Teleop19.8
End1.6
red by 10.8
2963
#13
16.71.8
10.99.1
Auto4.0
Teleop11.2
End1.5
Third
6882
#26
11.20.2
13.913.7
Auto2.3
Teleop7.2
End1.7
blue by 0.4
4464
#28
11.61.8
12.911.1
Auto3.5
Teleop6.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed