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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6568506080905282

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+42
Endgame+32
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +35
6Coral scored#14
21Coral points50
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
25Total teleop60
Reef
3L4#6
2L3#4
2L2#4
0L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#17
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
2Foul points0
52Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1885
#34
27.20.2
23.823.6
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End2.2
blue by 11.2
686
#14
38.31.6
31.232.8
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End2.2
Second
2186
#17
19.80.2
14.614.4
Auto4.9
Teleop7.8
End7.1
blue by 4.1
23.91.6
14.315.9
Auto4.6
Teleop14.9
End4.4
Third
4472
#16
17.70.2
15.114.8
Auto3.3
Teleop11.3
End3.0
blue by 2.9
612
#11
20.61.6
12.914.5
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed