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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93101406080120140160114118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+6Teleop
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points17
19Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +13
15Coral scored#12
53Coral points42
4Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
24Processor points18
12Net points16
36Algae points34
89Total teleop76
Reef
4L4#6
7L3#5
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points0
114Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9072
#15
45.92.1
45.747.7
Auto10.3
Teleop34.2
End1.4
red by 3.2
2534
#10
42.72.1
38.840.9
Auto9.8
Teleop30.3
End2.7
Second
5549
#21
25.42.1
13.115.2
Auto3.4
Teleop19.8
End2.2
blue by 16.4
41.82.1
29.831.8
Auto11.9
Teleop20.0
End9.8
Third
2421
#31
22.52.1
23.926.0
Auto4.6
Teleop13.0
End4.9
blue by 0.4
3793
#24
22.92.1
18.320.4
Auto4.7
Teleop17.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed53%Barge oddsEarned