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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions80836070901001108358

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+19Teleop
+29Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
3Leave9
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points24
16Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +36
8Coral scored#3
27Coral points11
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
51Total teleop15
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#2
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
2Foul points6
83Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2534
#10
42.70.5
42.643.1
Auto9.8
Teleop30.3
End2.7
blue by 9.0
620
#2
51.71.4
44.843.4
Auto16.6
Teleop31.9
End3.1
Second
2186
#17
19.80.5
11.411.8
Auto4.9
Teleop7.8
End7.1
red by 3.5
1446
#27
16.31.4
16.114.7
Auto4.1
Teleop11.1
End1.2
Third
9403
#18
19.10.5
20.220.7
Auto3.7
Teleop13.1
End2.3
red by 6.0
623
#38
13.11.4
11.810.4
Auto5.2
Teleop6.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned10%Barge oddsMissed