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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions707055606575805473

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+19
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
19Coral points3
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +21
6Coral scored#12
21Coral points44
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
31Total teleop52
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#3
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points6
54Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9072
#15
45.91.3
41.740.4
Auto10.3
Teleop34.2
End1.4
red by 11.7
1908
#20
34.20.3
33.132.8
Auto7.0
Teleop23.6
End3.6
Second
2068
#29
11.91.3
9.98.6
Auto3.4
Teleop5.9
End2.6
blue by 5.8
4472
#16
17.70.3
17.417.1
Auto3.3
Teleop11.3
End3.0
Third
11.21.3
13.111.8
Auto5.2
Teleop5.1
End0.9
Level
6882
#26
11.20.3
13.413.1
Auto2.3
Teleop7.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsMissed