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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions838005010015020012672

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+32Teleop
+54Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
11Coral scored#13
41Coral points45
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
77Total teleop59
Reef
4L4#6
5L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#17
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
0Foul points0
126Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.83.1
35.939.1
Auto11.9
Teleop20.0
End9.8
red by 3.4
686
#14
38.30.3
34.834.5
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End2.2
Second
9033
#12
30.53.1
27.230.3
Auto5.6
Teleop20.3
End4.6
blue by 3.7
1908
#20
34.20.3
32.832.5
Auto7.0
Teleop23.6
End3.6
Third
23.93.1
15.819.0
Auto4.6
Teleop14.9
End4.4
red by 16.3
2988
#32
7.50.3
8.78.4
Auto2.7
Teleop2.0
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsMissed