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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7511320406010014016018098105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+21
Endgame+11
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave9
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points14
12Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +10
14Coral scored#12
50Coral points42
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
6Processor points12
8Net points20
14Algae points32
64Total teleop74
Reef
4L4#6
5L3#4
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
19Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
8Foul points4
98Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5338
#19
42.91.2
41.242.4
Auto6.1
Teleop34.0
End2.7
blue by 3.1
9072
#15
45.90.0
44.044.1
Auto10.3
Teleop34.2
End1.4
Second
23.91.2
19.020.1
Auto4.6
Teleop14.9
End4.4
blue by 18.9
2534
#10
42.70.0
43.743.7
Auto9.8
Teleop30.3
End2.7
Third
623
#38
13.11.2
12.113.3
Auto5.2
Teleop6.1
End1.8
red by 1.9
6882
#26
11.20.0
12.612.6
Auto2.3
Teleop7.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed