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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions728305010015087106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+19
Endgame+17
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +18
3Leave9
2Coral scored#4
9Coral points21
12Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +1
11Coral scored#12
39Coral points42
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
61Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#4
3L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#20
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
10Foul points12
87Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2914
#35
25.40.7
21.522.2
Auto3.4
Teleop18.4
End3.7
blue by 26.3
620
#2
51.71.1
45.146.1
Auto16.6
Teleop31.9
End3.1
Second
3793
#24
22.90.7
23.524.2
Auto4.7
Teleop17.3
End0.9
red by 3.3
6326
#36
19.61.1
14.916.0
Auto6.5
Teleop10.2
End2.9
Third
612
#11
20.60.7
21.121.8
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End1.6
red by 9.0
4464
#28
11.61.1
11.812.9
Auto3.5
Teleop6.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsEarned