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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48642040801004436

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+8Teleop
+6Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +1
4Coral scored#4
15Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
25Total teleop24
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
2Foul points0
44Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
612
#11
20.60.2
13.313.1
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End1.6
blue by 6.6
1885
#34
27.21.2
24.223.0
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End2.2
Second
9403
#18
19.10.2
20.620.4
Auto3.7
Teleop13.1
End2.3
blue by 4.8
23.91.2
13.912.7
Auto4.6
Teleop14.9
End4.4
Third
2963
#13
16.70.2
11.010.9
Auto4.0
Teleop11.2
End1.5
red by 2.0
9684
#37
14.72.0
15.913.9
Auto5.4
Teleop9.9
End-0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
7%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed